What is the True Rate of Social Mobility in Sweden ? A Surname

On conventional measures, modern Sweden has rapid social and economic mobility. Analyzing surname distributions among Swedish elites attorneys, physicians, university students, and academicians this paper shows that conventional measures greatly overstate underlying social mobility rates. The Swedish elite of 1700 is still an elite, and is becoming average only slowly. The b measuring status persistence across surname generations is 0.7-0.8, compared to the 0.2-0.4 found in conventional studies. This illustrates a general feature that conventional studies overstate generalized or long-term social mobility rates. True rates of mobility in modern Sweden are similar to those of the supposedly more socially immobile economies of the UK and USA. They are perhaps no higher than in pre-industrial Sweden.